As remarkable as it might sound, we've reached the end of the road of the 2023 regular season. Week 18 is upon us and when we reconvene for my picks column next week, most of the league will be home starting up their offseason plans. I've rounded out the year on a rather high note, owning a 20-12 ATS mark over the last two weeks and I'll look to keep that going as we wrap up the regular season.Week 18 is often a bit tricky given that the motivations for teams are askew. Some will elect to rest players with playoff positions already locked up, while others will be a full go to further secure their spot for a Lombardi Trophy chase. This week, I'm targeting what could be Bill Belichick's final game with the and a key AFC South showdown between the and . As always, we'll kick things off with my five locks of the week.Regular seasonLocks of the Week ATS: 42-43-1ATS:133-112-11ML: Taywan Taylor Jersey 162-94Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN,) This is e sentially a playoff game for the Colts and Texans. The winner punches their ticket to the playoffs and sets themselves up with the po sibility of winning the AFC South if the lose to the on Sunday. They are relatively evenly matched, but is the X-factor. He gives Houston the clear advantage at quarterback over and was solid in his return from his concu sion last week against Tenne see. With the rust dusted off of him for this matchup against the Colts, he should find succe s against a defense that he threw for 384 yards against back in Week 2. The Harold Landry Jersey Texans are also 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven divisional road games.Projected score: Texans 28, Colts 24The pick: Texans +1Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX,) This could very well be the last game Bill Belichick coaches for the New England Patriots and it's hard to imagine that the players aren't aware of that po sibility either. With that in mind, I can't fathom this Patriots team laying over in a game that has historical significance even if they are eliminated from playoff contention. New England has won 15 straight games against the Jets and has won 12 straight at home. The Jets offense continues to look lost and is last in the league on third down and in the red zone, so there is no real threat of this unit raining on Belichick's parade. New England has also been solid against the number over the last month, owning a 3-0-1 ATS record after starting the year 2-10 ATS.Projected score: Patriots 20, Jets 17The picks: Patriots -2.5Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX,) The Buccaneers need to win this game to claim the NFC Bruce Matthews Jersey South, so they have plenty of motivation. As for the Panthers, they could be checked out as they own the worst record in the league and are fresh off a shutout lo s to the C.J. Beathard-led Jaguars. Even if Carolina gives the Bucs their best punch, the talent isn't there to really make much of an impact. And if history has any say in this contest, it could be a big day for . The Bucs wideout has routinely dominated the Panthers, registering 54 catches for 831 yards and eight touchdowns over his last seven games against the division rival. Tampa Bay is also 7-1 ATS on the road this season, which is the second-best in the .Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 17The picks: Buccaneers -5.5Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS,)All of the pre sure is on Green Bay and I don't think they'll shine under the spotlight. The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win while the Bears are already eliminated from playoff contention, and I expect Chicago to treat this like their . If they can wrap up the season with a win and take their division rival Packers into the offseason with them, that'll end the year on a high note. The Bears are allowing just 15.2 points per game since Week 12, which is the best mark in the NFL over that stretch. They also lead the league in takeaways since Week 12 as well. This is going to be a tightly contested game between two bitter rivals, so I'll gladly take the field goal and even look for the Bears to play spoiler. Since returned from his injury in Week 11, Chicago is 5-1 ATS.Projected score: Bears 24, Packers 21The picks: Bears +3 Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX,) The Cowboys are far and away the better team and need this game to secure the NFC East. Translation: DaQuan Jones Jersey there's going to be no letup from Mike McCarthy's team. They'll travel to FedEx Field, which has been a house of horrors for the Commanders so far this season. They have yet to record an ATS win at home, owning a 0-6-1 ATS record. They also have just a single ATS win against the division this year. has also dominated against Washington throughout his career. The Dallas QB is 10-2 SU, completes 65% of his pa ses, averages 7.7 yards per attempt, and has 23 touchdowns to just four picks. This shouldn't be close against a secondary that is allowing 7.8 yards per pa s attempt at home this season, the worst in the NFL Kamalei Correa Jersey .Projected score: Cowboys 33, Commanders 17The picks: Cowboys -13 at Projected score: Steelers 26, Ravens 21The picks: Steelers -4 at Projected score: Saints 24, Falcons 20The picks: Saints -3.5 at Projected score: Bengals 23, Browns 17The picks: Bengals -5Jaguars at TitansProjected score: Jaguars 24, Titans 17The picks: Jaguars -5 at Projected score: Lions 27, Vikings 20The picks: Lions -5.5 at Projected score: Raiders 23, Broncos 17The picks: Raiders -2.5 at Projected score: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20The picks: Chiefs +2 at Projected score: Rams 24, 49ers 23The picks: Rams +3.5 at Projected score: Eagles 23, Giants 20The picks: Giants +5 at Projected score: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 21The picks: Seahawks -3 at Projected score: Bills 30, Dolphins 24The picks: BIlls -3
NFL Week 18 odds picks Patriots pull out win in potential Belichick send-off Cowboys cover vs. Commanders
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